election_tracker.utf8.md

Live Results

As of 9:55 AM, 87 voters in 20 wards have shared their voter number. I estimate that 121,743 people have voted in person across the city (95% Confidence Interval: 84,351 - 168,787). In addition, 342,044 mail-in ballots have already been returned, and 93,385 are still outstanding.

Maps

I use historic correlations among divisions’ turnout to estimate turnout in the divisions with no data yet. I simultaneously estimate (1) the overall city-wide turnout, (2) divisions’ over-/under-performance, and (3) the city-wide time pattern of voting. See the Methodology.

Total Turnout (In-Person + Mail-In)

In-Person Turnout

Mail-In Requests

Mail-In Ballots Returned

Raw Responses (for debugging)

Submissions

Data Tables

For those of you who like tables with numbers.

**Estimated Turnout by Ward**

ward	time_of_day	turnout	turnout_p025	turnout_p975

01	9:55 AM	1629	c(`2.5%` = 1314)	c(`97.5%` = 1976)
02	9:55 AM	2675	c(`2.5%` = 2142)	c(`97.5%` = 3206)
03	9:55 AM	1575	c(`2.5%` = 1044)	c(`97.5%` = 2237)
04	9:55 AM	1603	c(`2.5%` = 1023)	c(`97.5%` = 2391)
05	9:55 AM	3812	c(`2.5%` = 2957)	c(`97.5%` = 4732)
06	9:55 AM	1073	c(`2.5%` = 777)	c(`97.5%` = 1527)
07	9:55 AM	1111	c(`2.5%` = 516)	c(`97.5%` = 2179)
08	9:55 AM	3674	c(`2.5%` = 2923)	c(`97.5%` = 4511)
09	9:55 AM	1789	c(`2.5%` = 1521)	c(`97.5%` = 2279)
10	9:55 AM	2319	c(`2.5%` = 1669)	c(`97.5%` = 3330)
11	9:55 AM	1026	c(`2.5%` = 643)	c(`97.5%` = 1567)
12	9:55 AM	1753	c(`2.5%` = 1177)	c(`97.5%` = 2572)
13	9:55 AM	1585	c(`2.5%` = 1024)	c(`97.5%` = 2358)
14	9:55 AM	686	c(`2.5%` = 511)	c(`97.5%` = 948)
15	9:55 AM	1923	c(`2.5%` = 1512)	c(`97.5%` = 2350)
16	9:55 AM	862	c(`2.5%` = 520)	c(`97.5%` = 1354)
17	9:55 AM	1929	c(`2.5%` = 1273)	c(`97.5%` = 2828)
18	9:55 AM	1593	c(`2.5%` = 1177)	c(`97.5%` = 2043)
19	9:55 AM	825	c(`2.5%` = 426)	c(`97.5%` = 1491)
20	9:55 AM	792	c(`2.5%` = 469)	c(`97.5%` = 1252)
21	9:55 AM	4341	c(`2.5%` = 3157)	c(`97.5%` = 5779)
22	9:55 AM	2397	c(`2.5%` = 2064)	c(`97.5%` = 3132)
23	9:55 AM	1459	c(`2.5%` = 915)	c(`97.5%` = 2152)
24	9:55 AM	1227	c(`2.5%` = 800)	c(`97.5%` = 1753)
25	9:55 AM	1185	c(`2.5%` = 690)	c(`97.5%` = 1735)
26	9:55 AM	1608	c(`2.5%` = 1172)	c(`97.5%` = 2133)
27	9:55 AM	2128	c(`2.5%` = 1294)	c(`97.5%` = 3043)
28	9:55 AM	919	c(`2.5%` = 556)	c(`97.5%` = 1446)
29	9:55 AM	892	c(`2.5%` = 647)	c(`97.5%` = 1248)
30	9:55 AM	1763	c(`2.5%` = 1456)	c(`97.5%` = 2172)
31	9:55 AM	1438	c(`2.5%` = 1090)	c(`97.5%` = 1741)
32	9:55 AM	1520	c(`2.5%` = 919)	c(`97.5%` = 2385)
33	9:55 AM	1279	c(`2.5%` = 639)	c(`97.5%` = 2284)
34	9:55 AM	3281	c(`2.5%` = 2388)	c(`97.5%` = 4565)
35	9:55 AM	2199	c(`2.5%` = 1358)	c(`97.5%` = 3287)
36	9:55 AM	2635	c(`2.5%` = 1927)	c(`97.5%` = 3617)
37	9:55 AM	982	c(`2.5%` = 580)	c(`97.5%` = 1575)
38	9:55 AM	1623	c(`2.5%` = 1212)	c(`97.5%` = 2205)
39	9:55 AM	3119	c(`2.5%` = 2326)	c(`97.5%` = 4000)
40	9:55 AM	3420	c(`2.5%` = 2214)	c(`97.5%` = 4987)
41	9:55 AM	1326	c(`2.5%` = 782)	c(`97.5%` = 1982)
42	9:55 AM	1748	c(`2.5%` = 1002)	c(`97.5%` = 2842)
43	9:55 AM	1381	c(`2.5%` = 742)	c(`97.5%` = 2410)
44	9:55 AM	1078	c(`2.5%` = 688)	c(`97.5%` = 1604)
45	9:55 AM	1495	c(`2.5%` = 904)	c(`97.5%` = 2168)
46	9:55 AM	2027	c(`2.5%` = 1660)	c(`97.5%` = 2641)
47	9:55 AM	639	c(`2.5%` = 413)	c(`97.5%` = 949)
48	9:55 AM	1517	c(`2.5%` = 998)	c(`97.5%` = 2163)
49	9:55 AM	1959	c(`2.5%` = 1250)	c(`97.5%` = 2935)
50	9:55 AM	2676	c(`2.5%` = 2204)	c(`97.5%` = 3580)
51	9:55 AM	1745	c(`2.5%` = 1159)	c(`97.5%` = 2610)
52	9:55 AM	2117	c(`2.5%` = 1646)	c(`97.5%` = 2880)
53	9:55 AM	1509	c(`2.5%` = 921)	c(`97.5%` = 2228)
54	9:55 AM	1091	c(`2.5%` = 587)	c(`97.5%` = 1684)
55	9:55 AM	1729	c(`2.5%` = 1043)	c(`97.5%` = 2588)
56	9:55 AM	2498	c(`2.5%` = 1580)	c(`97.5%` = 3604)
57	9:55 AM	2163	c(`2.5%` = 1406)	c(`97.5%` = 3044)
58	9:55 AM	3619	c(`2.5%` = 2282)	c(`97.5%` = 5120)
59	9:55 AM	1857	c(`2.5%` = 1312)	c(`97.5%` = 2646)
60	9:55 AM	1482	c(`2.5%` = 1034)	c(`97.5%` = 2110)
61	9:55 AM	2286	c(`2.5%` = 1467)	c(`97.5%` = 3396)
62	9:55 AM	1633	c(`2.5%` = 939)	c(`97.5%` = 2478)
63	9:55 AM	2048	c(`2.5%` = 1446)	c(`97.5%` = 2812)
64	9:55 AM	1175	c(`2.5%` = 743)	c(`97.5%` = 1723)
65	9:55 AM	1691	c(`2.5%` = 1121)	c(`97.5%` = 2387)
66	9:55 AM	3607	c(`2.5%` = 2386)	c(`97.5%` = 5042)

Raw Submissions

**Submitted Data**

Time of Vote	Precinct	Voter Number

7:10 AM	5107	2
7:41 AM	0537	24
7:42 AM	0501	14
7:43 AM	0828	33
7:03 AM	2714	2
7:40 AM	1508	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:25 AM	0214	16
7:56 AM	3636	33
7:13 AM	0218	9
8:07 AM	4603	27
8:16 AM	0218	60
8:18 AM	0222	68
8:10 AM	1810	36
8:20 AM	3635	57
8:30 AM	3110	55
8:32 AM	0532	69
8:30 AM	2707	45
8:32 AM	2702	48
8:15 AM	3901	52
8:15 AM	3640	64
8:38 AM	3638	55
8:38 AM	3637	31
8:42 AM	0525	64
8:40 AM	0501	36
7:30 AM	0202	28
8:40 AM	0537	56
8:12 AM	4616	41
8:35 AM	3909	65
8:43 AM	0517	69
8:49 AM	0834	73
8:49 AM	0206	69
8:50 AM	0828	77
8:07 AM	0801	40
7:30 AM	3640	31
7:30 AM	3104	29
8:50 AM	0213	25
8:40 AM	2717	56
8:45 AM	2101	47
8:25 AM	3945	52
7:48 AM	1503	38
7:48 AM	1503	38
9:02 AM	1503	92
7:15 AM	0902	12
8:40 AM	2717	56
7:01 AM	0807	13
9:09 AM	4701	73
8:50 AM	0213	25
9:10 AM	1514	81
7:55 AM	1517	30
9:00 AM	3914	40
8:00 AM	5702	60
8:30 AM	2105	91
8:30 AM	2105	91
9:15 AM	2714	51
8:15 AM	2605	56
9:20 AM	3637	100
9:20 AM	3638	79
8:30 AM	0521	92
9:20 AM	0532	112
9:15 AM	1802	73
9:24 AM	2911	62
9:03 AM	0229	95
9:23 AM	0812	138
8:50 AM	0828	77
9:00 AM	3107	100
9:15 AM	3639	86
9:15 AM	0120	76
9:30 AM	0308	109
9:30 AM	0807	98
9:25 AM	3610	84
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:34 AM	0818	50
9:35 AM	0817	107
8:40 AM	1514	68
8:00 AM	0106	69
8:40 AM	1514	68
9:38 AM	6008	49
9:30 AM	3636	108
7:15 AM	0114	9
9:46 AM	3111	104
9:47 AM	0204	72
9:50 AM	0505	92
9:55 AM	0528	148
9:45 AM	0224	110
9:45 AM	0224	109

Download the csvs: - Raw Submissions - Division Predictions

Live 2020 Election Turnout Tracker